Elevator industry: individual stocks in the second wave of rising

Events:

After engineering machinery rose yesterday, related to real estate construction today appeared in the lift plates, including homelite surged 6.92%, heavy bowling rose 6.1%.

The elevator industry performance than expected

Affected by the real estate regulation, 11-12 commercial housing sales have been low and new construction. But since 2012, affected by the first suite rate dropped to 85 fold is good, since the second half of 2012 new commercial housing sales area and site area are picked up, and broke out in the first half of 2013. Due east commercial housing sales area was the first to rebound, and lead to high growth, so the 13 years of foreign brand growth of more than 30% in the first half of the year.

To keep high growth industry next year will also:

Because 08 year financial crisis as well as the commercial housing sales area of 11-12 macro-control huge fluctuations, we will be 08, 11 and 12 years data, after excluding the model results for 3.4 / square meters, at the same time, we think because commercial housing sales area is 12 years second half of the recovery, to speed up the development of the real estate, real estate stocks also brought 13 years real estate demand for elevator. Due to the growth rate of commercial housing sales area of growth is the new start is a leading indicator, in July to start construction area of the cumulative growth rate has begun to rebound, we commenced area of 13 years, new growth is expected to more than 13%, we expect to 14 years in the elevator industry growth will be more than 13%. A line leading growth is likely to be 20%.

Mortgage to tighten the common phenomenon Growth does not affect the elevator

The economic rebound in real estate analysts believe will drive buyers are expected to improve, sales recovery is a big probability event; Recent investors worry about tightening of mortgage loans, we believe that the negative impact is limited, due to the leader of the home mortgage market is still 5 large commercial Banks, its market share of 73%, part of the small line because of short-term profit index increased mortgage rates, but this phenomenon in the last month or last year, have continued to happen. Overall look, the future led the property market will still be expected and inventory situation of buyers, sales recovery will still be very clear in the future.

Stocks will usher in a second wave of lift

Depth on May 2nd, we report the benefit from the new domestic leading into the golden decade “of urbanization in the expected to” the future industry will benefit from the expected difference, order forecast and valuation of push repair is expected to be two stages significantly affect the company’s share price.” Forward at this time point, the elevator industry now expected worse, in the second half will be order driving performance and the second wave of the market valuation of repair.